Friday, February 01, 2008

Is this a done deal?

If you are like me, even a political junkie can't keep up with all the primary stuff and who has what delegates. Here is a brief look at what is coming from NRO about McCain:

In my opinion, the nomination is now his to lose. He now has an estimated 97 delegates (per CNN). Next Tuesday, he'll win New York (101), New Jersey (52), Connecticut (30), and Arizona (53). He'll probably also win Oklahoma (41) and Missouri (58).
These are — off the top of my head — all of the winner-take-all states on Super Tuesday (except Utah). They'll leave McCain with a total of 432 delegates. That's before any of the California delegates, of which he's sure to take several. He'll get some in Illinois and some in the proportional states in the South (where Romney won't do well anyway), and some in the caucus states. My guess is he'll finish Super Tuesday with no fewer than 700 delegates, and perhaps as many as 900.
Romney will probably have about 250 at that point, maybe something like 400 if he does unexpectedly well in the caucus states. The threshold for victory is 1,191.