Monday, May 05, 2008

Hillary Isn't Going Anywhere

As much fun as it has been to watch the Democrats beat each other up, we are coming into the homestretch and to what I have always predicted, a Hillary nomination.

"In the USA Today survey taken Thursday through Saturday, Clinton leads Obama among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents by 7 percentage points, the first time in three months she has been ahead. Two weeks ago, before the controversy over comments by Jeremiah Wright reignited, Obama led by 10 points.”

For independent voters, the Wright controversy removed the halo from Obama. If they thought that his candidacy would put the issue of race behind us, they realized they were wrong. It ended up showing not the ugly face of racist whites, as we might have imagined, but the ugly face of racist blacks, and independent voters discovered that was just as disturbing to them.

Rev. Wright was a gift to the Hillary campaign (or a calculated orchestration of events, whichever you wish to believe) and it gave Hillary the doorway to her transformation to "moderate" candidate. And she is doing a marvelous job with. Boxing gloves are her "symbol" now. She signs her autograph on them. She portrays herself as the fighter who has been battle tested. She isn't giving up. No matter what. Women are eating this up. She has also softened up her image so much that even I can tolerate watching her on the morning shows.

I am amazed that people like Allahpundit over at HotAir and Michael Goldfarb at the Weekly Standard think that Hillary is about to go.


Hillary makes the case that all the votes need to be counted. She says let all the primary voters vote, and then the superdelegates can decide. This is hard to argue with given the Democrat's mantra on having every vote count (when it suites them of course, but that's another post). Because of this, there is simply no way Howard Dean or others can force a decision one way or the other until all the votes are in. Time is on Hillary's side and so is the momentum.

Bottom line. Clinton knows if Obama doesn't meet the delegate threshold, she can fight his nomination on the floor of the convention. A delicious scenario that I hope happens. But what Hillary absolutely WILL do is fight to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations. She has practically promised to do this.

I predict she will win this particular fight, and then she would be ahead in the popular vote, thus giving the superdelegates a way to give her the nomination "fairly." The pressure upon Obama to accept the V.P position will be enormous. If he does, it doesn't bode well for us. If he doesn't, then maybe he is the man of integrity that we imagine him to be.

Howard Dean imagines that Hillary will bow out for the good of the party. But think about it. When have the Clintons done anything for the good of anyone but themselves politically?

Hillary isn't going anywhere.