Sunday, November 02, 2008

Why I Know We Will Win

This is from a thread at Ace's:


The media polls are heavily weighted towards Democrats in terms of Party ID. With that kind of heavy weighting, it would be impossible for McCain to show any lead even if he had a small led among independents. For example, Rasmussen currently assumes the following party id break down: Democrats 40%, Republicans 32.8%, and Independents 27.2%. He is assuming a whopping 7 percent advantage in party id for the Democrats. This is a big barrier to overcome in these polls. If we assume a 85% Democrat support for Obama and 85% Republican support for McCain and a 50/50 breakdown among independents (ignore undecided and third party candidates) this would translate to a poll finding of 52.5% for Obama and 47.5% for McCain which incidentally gives the same 5% spread as in the current Rasmussen poll.

Note that all of this is simply from the 7% party id advantage. If we reduce the party id spread to 3%, the numbers would change to 51% for Obama and 49% to McCain. Now if we assume that McCain picks off more Democrats than Obama does Republicans, 85% Democrats for Obama and 90% Republicans for McCain then the outcome will be 49.3% for Obama and 50.7% for McCain, a clear LEAD.

Now, I could see that this could seems like someone stretching it, desperate to put on the best face. I don't know much about statistics or about the science of polling. But I do know that the McCain camp knows something we don't. It's clear in their speeches and how they are in places like Pennsylvania. And Obama isn't acting like he has this thing in the bag. I see a lot of concern in their camp. So it makes me wonder if they also know something we don't.

Now, all this could be wishful thinking, and I know that. But there is just a feeling out there that Americans aren't sure about Obama. And they are sure about McCain. My feeling is that the undecided will break McCain's way in a big way.

I can't explain my optimism. I didn't have this kind of optimism with Bush the last two times. It's about momentum (which I think McCain has) against Obamamania. It will be close, but I think there will be surprises no one saw coming. Blue states red. That's my prediction.